Confidence Without Competence Is Dangerous

This article is also available in Portuguese: “Confiança sem Competência é um Perigo“

In the movie Little Miss Sunshine, young Olive, inspired by her father’s motivational speeches, walks confidently onto the stage of a beauty pageant. But it quickly becomes clear that confidence alone is not enough to win a competition.

Self-help books and motivational speakers teach that confidence is the key to success. And they are not wrong. There are countless techniques involving posture, voice projection, and daily affirmations in front of the mirror designed to build self-confidence.

Someone who is naturally confident adopts a posture and way of behaving that make others confident in them as well. Salespeople (and politicians, for that matter) who speak assertively can convince an Eskimo that the best investment for an igloo is a chrome-plated refrigerator because it perfectly matches the clean décor of the North Pole and is guaranteed to impress the neighbors.

Confidence, by the way, is highly contagious. The support of a cheering crowd can give an athlete exactly the extra strength needed to overcome an obstacle.

“Come on, you can do it! We believe in you!”

When we feel confident, we become more motivated.
We work harder and achieve more.
We take more risks.

And that’s where the danger lies.

Confidence can improve performance.

But it never replaces competence.

Confidence Influences Risk Assessment

To be confident means believing that something will happen in the future.

I may feel confident that it won’t rain this afternoon. Based on that belief, I decide to leave home without an umbrella. By doing so, I accept the risk of getting soaked on my way back.

That belief may come from the pain in my bunion, which always gets worse when humidity rises. Or it may come from a weather forecasting website.

Two different kinds of confidence, therefore:

• confidence in myself, or
• confidence in someone else’s competence.

In this particular case, the weather service is certainly far more competent than I am at predicting rain. They employ specialists, use sensors, analyze data through scientific methods, and work exclusively to provide highly accurate forecasts.

Yet confidence often appears disconnected from any real assessment of competence, and I may still trust my aching bunion more.

Unfortunately, that happens far more often than it should.

Confidence and Competence: Two Distinct Variables

Those who read the first article in this series may remember the Trust × Confidence matrix. I enjoy using this type of diagram because it helps distinguish concepts and makes it easier to understand how we relate to them.

Today, let’s analyze another 2 × 2 matrix, this time using Self-Confidence and Competence as the two variables.

When these two variables grow together, we create a low-risk environment. In other words, my confidence develops in proportion to my level of competence.

In that situation, I allow people who are more competent than I am to make the decisions whenever I recognize that I lack the necessary expertise (Quadrant III – Prudence). On the other hand, I willingly step into leadership roles when I know my competence is higher within that specific context (Quadrant II – Competent Leadership).

However, when confidence and competence become disconnected, we may face serious problems.

The Dunning-Kruger Effect

Psychologists David Dunning and Justin Kruger published a famous paper in 1999 in which they observed that people with low ability in a specific domain tend to overestimate their competence and consider themselves far more skilled than they actually are [Quadrant I – Overconfidence].

Note: My 2×2 matrix does not represent the exact curve proposed by Dunning and Kruger. Instead, it uses the same underlying logic to illustrate how self-confidence and competence can become disconnected.

The Dunning-Kruger Effect, as it became known, tends to be stronger the less someone knows about a subject. Ignorance of the subject’s complexity leads to oversimplifications that create a powerful sense of certainty.

It is in Quadrant I that:

• my cousin, who is a civil engineer with no formal medical education whatsoever, prescribes me a prescription-only medication with the very best intentions;
• the Uber driver, whose previous experience was bagging groceries at a supermarket, tries to convince me of the benefits of investing in cryptocurrencies;
• a dentist takes a weekend course and starts offering “facial demonization” services (of course, that’s not how they advertise it, but it seems like a much more appropriate name to me);
• the executive at your company, whose background is in marketing, decides to ignore the technical team’s recommendation and invests millions in a technology that was presented to him during a wine-tasting event.

The False Confidence Created by AI

The way AI-based language models answer virtually any question can create this same false impression of competence and lead to excessive confidence.

Traditional computer systems have always been developed algorithmically, based on deterministic business rules. In other words, when the system said that something was forbidden, it was because there was a rule stating that it was forbidden. Or if the system calculated a 4.32% penalty, it did so based on a predefined formula.

We have become accustomed to believing that the system is always right.

AI systems based on machine learning, however, do not follow deterministic rules. They rely on probabilistic patterns.

That means an answer may sound extremely convincing and still be wrong. There is a probability that it is correct, and that probability increases as the training data becomes broader and of higher quality.

But it can always be wrong. That is why an AI system can appear extremely competent precisely when it is making its biggest mistake.

We need to pay close attention to the information generated by these new computer systems and prepare users to understand the difference between deterministic and probabilistic answers so they can properly evaluate their reliability and their suitability for business use.

The Impostor Syndrome

Something equally problematic happens in the Dunning-Kruger Effect at the quadrant opposite to the Excess of Confidence. The more we study a subject, the more we realize how complex it is. And in complex environments, the feeling is that we can never be absolutely certain about anything.

As competence deepens, it is common to fall into the last quadrant of this matrix [Quadrant IV – Impostor Syndrome], where we find highly competent people who underestimate their own competence.

Instead of stepping into leadership positions and taking responsibility for influencing the group’s most important decisions, these people prefer to follow less qualified leaders and end up suffering the consequences of poor decisions.

This is how:

• the business administrator avoids getting involved in the management of the condominium where he lives and ends up paying more for a poor-quality service;
• the honest citizen who prefers to stay away from politics complains that there are no good candidates for public office;
• the product development team that does not want to challenge the business team simply builds what was requested, even though they know the results could be much better if approached differently.

Self-Confidence and Competence Can and Should Grow Together

There is a feeling of second-hand embarrassment when little Olive walks onto the stage to perform the dance routine her grandfather taught her in Little Miss Sunshine. Her provocative dance, completely inappropriate for a child, makes it obvious that she was not prepared and that self-confidence alone would never be enough to win the beauty pageant.

In the movie, something wonderful happens at that moment. Her family joins her on stage, dancing alongside her, protecting her, supporting her, and celebrating her authenticity.

But I would not recommend that anyone enter a competition (whether a beauty pageant or any other kind) based solely on the enthusiastic praise of proud parents.

A structured assessment based on clear performance metrics can help determine your current level of competence.

With that assessment, you will be able to identify your gaps and create action plans to develop the competencies that deserve the most attention.

Frequent performance evaluations will help you trust yourself more and more. With evidence. Without illusion.

But don’t wait until you are 100% ready before you begin.

In a previous article, I discussed how self-confidence reveals itself in the courage to move forward, even when failure is a real possibility.

Take calculated risks from the very beginning and put yourself in leadership situations that require you to apply your competencies.

Choose challenges that will not expose you to irreversible damage, but that allow you to grow.

Even when the outcome is not ideal, every failure can become a learning opportunity, as long as it gives you meaningful feedback and a chance to improve.

Confidence and Competence for Business Analysts

Assess your current level of competence using the IIBA Business Analysis Competency Model.

Identify your strengths and weaknesses before taking risks, and seek to balance yourself between Quadrant III and Quadrant II, gradually assuming more leadership responsibilities as your competence grows.

Whenever possible, find a mentor or a more experienced professional who can provide feedback on your work and help you develop in your area of specialization or business domain.

During meetings, whenever appropriate, take on the role of facilitator of the collaborative process and use the business analysis techniques you have studied to help others reach their full potential.

As the group progresses, recognize every improvement and help others build confidence in themselves and in one another.

That will also strengthen your own self-confidence and make others trust you even more.

Moving Forward

Little Olive did not win the competition. She never had a real chance because she lacked the necessary competence.

But the self-confidence she developed through the support of her family gave her the courage to step onto the stage, try anyway…

…and learn from failure.

Give yourself a vote of confidence and step into leadership whenever leadership is needed. Trust the competencies you have developed, and learn from your mistakes so you can continue to grow.

Competence without self-confidence prevents action.

Self-confidence without competence leads to irresponsible action.

Develop both competence and self-confidence together.

Naturally move toward leadership positions and put your competencies at the service of transforming organizations.

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References

• 1st article of this series: Enabling Confidence [or Trust]?
• 2nd article of this series: Self-Confidence: The Courage to Fail
• FABR Framework: A Guide to Lead AI Adoption with Safety and Value
• Movie: Little Miss Sunshine (2006)
• Dunning, D.; Kruger, J.; Unskilled and Unaware of It: How Difficulties in Recognizing One’s Own Incompetence Lead to Inflated Self-Assessments.; Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 1999.
• International Institute of Business Analysis (IIBA); Business Analysis Competency Model.