Confidence to Cross the Line

Confidence does not eliminate risk. It helps us assess uncertainty, face the unknown, and find the courage to cross the line.

Also available in Portuguese.

Over the past few weeks, I have published a few articles about confidence.

IIBA‘s tagline for 2026 is Enabling Confidence, and I am preparing a talk that I will deliver at BA Brasil and at a series of conferences around the world starting next month. So, this topic has been on my mind, and I have been reflecting a lot on it.

One thing I have often thought about is how confidence depends on the courage to take risks. In some contexts, confidence and courage may even appear to be synonyms:

“Do you have the confidence/courage to fight Mike Tyson?”

But they are not exactly the same thing, as I will explain later.

The Meaning of “Risco”

A linguistic curiosity is that the word risco, in my native language, Portuguese, can mean two completely different things.

Risco = uncertainty; risk

“Risco” can be understood as the uncertainty about something that may happen. This is the meaning we use worldwide in project management and business analysis.

Risco = line; mark

The other meaning of “risco” is a line, a mark drawn on the ground, on a blackboard, on a sheet of paper, or in the sand at the beach.

One has nothing to do with the other, but this linguistic coincidence gave me a very interesting metaphor for thinking about risk and confidence.

The “Risco” Metaphor

I can draw a “risco” (a line) on the ground and say: “Don’t you dare cross this line!”

Creating the confidence to cross the line, Created with ChatGPT
Creating the confidence to cross the line, Created with ChatGPT

On your side of the line is everything you know, everything you feel comfortable and safe with. On the other side is the unknown, the unsafe, and the uncomfortable.

UNKNOWN

KNOWN

Crossing the line is what we call taking the risk, or accepting the risk and moving forward.

I have been thinking a lot about this attitude of taking a risk as an attitude of confidence. Having confidence, as I have described in other articles (references at the end), means looking into the future and having an expectation that something will happen. Being sure about it.

Confidence: the degree of certainty you have about a future outcome.

For example, if I am sure it is going to rain, I will probably leave home with an umbrella. If I am sure it is not going to rain, I will leave without one.

In this simple example, you can see that confidence is what guides my decision about how I will deal with risk. How I will move into the unknown, taking an umbrella or not.

Assessing risks - How confident are you that it's going to rain?
Assessing risks – How confident are you that it’s going to rain?

This scenario becomes more interesting if I have to leave home. Crossing the line into the unknown is often not something we can avoid. But I can decide whether or not to take an umbrella.

The Confidence to Cross the Line

In our professional careers, we are often called upon to take positions in unfamiliar territory, where we are not sure whether our competencies will be enough for us to succeed. Or we may not know exactly what steps to take to lead an initiative or how we should behave. This may come as an opportunity or, sometimes, as something imposed on us.

What gives us the courage to take that position is our belief that we can succeed. Or even some degree of faith that we will be up to the challenge.

That is a little of what self-confidence is about.

The ability to cross the line. To cross the frontier into the unknown and do something new.

Confidence and courage, therefore, are closely related. If courage is the strength of spirit to act despite fear, confidence helps us build that strength.

Overconfidence May Not Be Courage, but a Lack of Analysis

Don’t confuse courage with irresponsibility. When crossing the line into the unknown, someone with too much self-confidence may put themselves in real danger.

A person who leaves home without an umbrella, even while hearing thunder, seeing lightning, and looking at a dark sky full of heavy clouds, is not necessarily demonstrating confidence that it will not rain. They may simply be irresponsible.

They did not assess the risks or protect themselves from them.

The self-confidence I hope to develop in myself, and that I suggest you develop as well, is related to the ability to analyze a situation and make decisions based on calculated risks.

When you are called into an unfamiliar situation, try to assess the risk you are exposing yourself to before deciding whether or not to cross the line and move forward.

An invitation, for example, to speak at a conference in front of a large audience may seem like a very frightening situation if you have never done it before. But if you assess it carefully, perhaps it is not a risk you should avoid, but a situation in which you should have the courage to expose yourself in order to open up opportunities in your professional life.

To develop the necessary confidence, you will certainly prepare, study, put together a good presentation, and develop the competencies needed to face the challenge.

It is not something that should frighten you to the point of not participating. When assessing the possible outcomes, you may realize that the negative impact is much smaller than the potential positive impact.

The Other Side of the Line

More modern definitions of risk recognize that the effects of uncertainty can be both negative and positive. This changes a little the way we look at that line. The unknown may contain something you don’t want to happen. But it may also contain exactly what you would like to happen.

In this case, risk is no longer seen only as a danger or a problem, but also as an opportunity.

It’s like playing the lottery. You run the risk of winning.

What Do We Do With This?

Whether you are leaving home, playing the lottery, or taking a new position in your career, this relationship between confidence and risk will always be there.

Use the analysis techniques you have at your disposal to assess what may happen in that unknown future.

Your degree of certainty about that possible future, and about your ability to deal with it, is what will give you the courage you need to cross the line.

Other articles about Enabling Confidence

Where will I be speaking in the coming months?